不均等选择概率下的加权调整研究

从不均等选择概率的角度,提出两类常见的权数调整类型及其调整方法:一是规模调整,使得样本单元权数之和等于总体规模;二是结构调整,使得样本结构和总体结构一致,并构造出加权调整的设计效应模型,应用于复杂样本设计。案例分析显示,加权调整往往导致设计效应变大,带来负的效应,但校准调整能降低设计效应,提高估计精度。     

Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest, which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem, and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct we also obtain multivariate confidence corridors for the regression function in the classical mean regression. To deal with the problem of slowly decreasing error in coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence corridors, which results in meager coverage for small sample sizes, a simple bootstrap procedure is designed based on the leading term of the Bahadur representation. The finite-sample properties of both procedures are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is demonstrated that the bootstrap procedure considerably outperforms the asymptotic bands in terms of coverage accuracy. Finally, the bootstrap confidence corridors are used to study the efficacy of the National Supported Work Demonstration, which is a randomized employment enhancement program launched in the 1970s. This article has supplementary materials online.     

智库影响力的国际比较与走向判断

现代智库已经成为各国决策者处理各种社会复杂问题所倚重的重要力量。中国与西方国家智库因为所处的体制环境不同，在独立属性上呈现出本土化运作的特征。通过对中西方智库的独立性的比较、分析和考察，以我国特有的国情为发展的起点，借鉴西方发达国家智库发展的成功经验，找到一条适合我国本土体制和国情的独立性的发展路径，是今后提高我国智库决策影响力的重要价值选择，也是促进我国决策科学化和民主化的重要动力。     

The expected and unexpected media effects on youth’s (mis)perceptions of peer norms: Chinese college students’ overestimation of peer smoking prevalence

Youth’s perceptions of peer norms have profound effects on their attitudes and behaviors. Unfortunately, their perceptions of peers tend to be biased. To investigate the role of media in the formation of misperceived peer norms, the current study tested and compared two media-effect mechanisms: the direct exemplar mechanism and the indirect influence of presumed influence (IPI) mechanism. The two mechanisms were tested in a sample (n = 1746) that is representative of college students in one large university in China, based on which the actual and perceived campus smoking rates were examined. The individual-level perceived peer smoking prevalence was then analyzed in comparison with the campus-level actual smoking prevalence. The results revealed serious overestimations of peer smoking prevalence. As predicted, pro-smoking media content significantly heightened smoking prevalence estimates through both exemplar and IPI mechanisms. In contrast, anti-smoking messages did not elicit any intended effect through the IPI mechanism, but showed a boomerang effect through the exemplar mechanism. These findings suggest that both pro- and anti-smoking media content may be responsible for inflated perceptions of peer smoking among youth.     

家电下乡政策的消费效应评估——基于全国221个村庄的4年跟踪调查

以全国221个村庄所获得的4年调查数据作为研究基础,对"家电下乡"政策的消费效应予以评估和分析。调查表明,家电下乡政策消费效应的最大特征是农民消费需求的释放,其中包括全国消费总额的上升,户均消费额增幅达到8成,全国各地消费总量和户均消费数量的增加。但家电下乡政策的消费效应在实践中也遇到了持续性疲软的难题,如农民收入的限制作用,农民购买下乡产品比重偏低,政府补贴额和补贴程序不足,政策宣传和解说不到位。为了使家电下乡政策的消费效应持续起效,必须不断完善政策,使家电下乡政策的实惠真正落实到农民身上。     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

凸显地缘文化特质,构建和谐多样的文化生态区域——论传媒中方言文艺的积极效用

在中国当代媒体竞争格局下,方言媒体手段的运用符合电视文化发展的多元化以及受众心理的多元文化需求的需要,使其有生存与发展的土壤.大众媒体中的方言手段在凸显地缘文化特质、构建和谐多样的地域文化生态区域等方面作用尤其重大.     

Locally best invariant test for outliers in a gamma type distribution

It is shown that the locally best invariant test for the existence of outliers for scale parameters of the gamma distribution is given by Bartholomew's test for exponentiality which is the ratio of the sum of squares of the data to the square of the sample mean. The optimality robustness, including null and nonnull robustness of the test is shown. A small simulation study to compare the power among the other eight competitive tests for testing exponentiality is performed. It is seen that the locally best invariant test is not always best but is reasonably good. It is slightly better than Cochran's test and suffers less from the limiting masking effect.     

消费文化转型的激励机制与“两型社会”的构建

消费文化具有引导、凝聚和激励的社会效应,实现消费文化由传统向现代的转型,对于"资源节约型、环境友好型"社会的构建有着不可或缺的作用.因此,有必要在明确"两型社会"消费文化转型取向的基础上,探求消费文化转型的激励机制,以期对推动"两型社会"的构建进程有所裨益.